251 replies to this topic

[John MFer]

So much for home ownership. I just signed a rental agreement for a new apartment with a 13 month lease beginning in November

Maybe in 2013. Besides, after doing more research, it's really pretty crazy to buy a house before you have that 20% down payment. The monthly note is much higher because you owe more principle and interest and you also have to carry special insurance of 75 to 150 a month until you pay the principle down to 80% or less the value of the house.

Our house in S. Phoenix appraised for $147K in July 2010, and $93K in Aug. 2011. So, we've been losing $4,000 per month for the last year. I would recommend not buying a house, ever, under no circumstances.

I'm surprised we don't see more houses completely burned to the ground.

At the height of the boom I remember feeling great about how much equity we had based on the market value. At the same time I knew there were some real problems with how expensive houses had gotten. Namely, it still would only cost around $130K to build our house in S. Phoenix but it would sell for double that. Now, the same house would sell for significantly less than it would cost to build from scratch. So, the market really has swung the other way, and it's so far out of equilibrium, it's got to stabilize at some point.

[capharnaum]

I would recommend not buying a house, ever, under no circumstances.

ditto times a thousand.

[fatguyaz]

you guys are crazy... a stable place to live with a cheap payment is what you'd get buying a house nowadays. Buying a house 4 years ago, however....

[Tony]

you guys are crazy... a stable place to live with a cheap payment is what you'd get buying a house nowadays. Buying a house 4 years ago, however....

word. and if you bought a house 10 years ago and sold it 4 years ago? mad cheddar. buy low, sell high. it's all going to happen again, and lots of people are going to make money on it. might as well be you.

[John MFer]

you guys are crazy... a stable place to live with a cheap payment is what you'd get buying a house nowadays. Buying a house 4 years ago, however....

word. and if you bought a house 10 years ago and sold it 4 years ago? mad cheddar. buy low, sell high. it's all going to happen again, and lots of people are going to make money on it. might as well be you.

Maybe in 20 years. And only maybe.

[fatguyaz]

What's it gonna do? Get worse?! I don't see that happening. It may stay bad for a while, but i can't see it dipping too much more.

[John MFer]

I agree, it has over corrected and this downward spiral is going to stop soon. Houses have gone from way overvalued to way undervalued, so the market should correct this at some point, once all the short sales and repos clear off the books. I just don't think we're going to see another bubble, or for that matter see prices rise significantly at all any time soon. Too many other things have to fall into place first.

[Rize]

Unless you're living in a bust town or there is a terrible plague, housing values are probably about as low as demand will allow them to get. People losing houses have kept apartment rents up, but the worth of a house has to be balanced against the cost of renting so there is an equilibrium as long as there is demand for living space. If all goes well, I will buy something as soon as my new lease is up at the end of next year.

EDIT:

Of course, it's different in every market. It just depends on supply and demand.

[bleh]

Is it fair to assume that buying a place outside of Phoenix proper is off the table for most of you? I know some of my friends are pretty adamant about staying in the central corridor area but when I was shopping around a year ago it just wasn't an option for me. The only decent places in my price range were either older homes you guys are talking about (which had major issues that I either don't know how or can't afford to deal with) or else were in the Laveen/South Mountain neighborhoods. Those houses are new and huge and look nice if that's important to you, but I guess the crime rate is a problem and every third house was empty. Also the floral bouquet of cow shit is inescapable, it's seriously like Buckeye. Ended up buying a new place in the Westgate area. Yeah, I'm contributing to the sprawl, and there's already a glut of unsold homes, but being from around here, I know for a fact that for years where my house is was just an empty block that was already surrounded by houses. Also, builders are motivated right now. Got a 2100 sq ft house for $138k, moved in a little over 3 months from the day I walked into the sales office. It's a 20 minute drive to where I work downtown (3rd and McDowell), but I also never have to deal with rush hour traffic because of my weird schedule, and most of my social interaction is conducted through Gmail chat anyways. I know it's pretty uncool living in what is essentially Glendale (even though it says Phoenix on my mail for some reason), but it's tough right now, so I thought I'd throw an option out there, especially since the prices are almost definitely lower now. Sorry about the wall of text.

[John MFer]

So much for home ownership. I just signed a rental agreement for a new apartment with a 13 month lease beginning in November

Maybe in 2013. Besides, after doing more research, it's really pretty crazy to buy a house before you have that 20% down payment. The monthly note is much higher because you owe more principle and interest and you also have to carry special insurance of 75 to 150 a month until you pay the principle down to 80% or less the value of the house.

Our house in S. Phoenix appraised for $147K in July 2010, and $93K in Aug. 2011. So, we've been losing $4,000 per month for the last year. I would recommend not buying a house, ever, under no circumstances.

We're finally selling this place, and actually coming away with cash in our pockets. Now is the time to sell if you've been waiting. 

[Rocquero]

hjgfd

[Rize]

It didn't happen in late 2012, but I did buy a house in August of 2014.  It was kind of broken and I'm still fixing it.